I will occasionally stray away from the White Sox only format. During Spring Training the stories are at a minimum and game action is very close to unusable as far as big picture goes. So over the next few weeks leading up to Opening Day there will be more straying than usual. What better way to kick off a specialized blog than with subject matter slightly outside of intended content?
A good way to show that you are really dumb is to make season standings and awards predictions. Always in need of a reminder of my sub-par prognosticating skills, I’m going to go ahead and participate in this exercise. Part 1: American League Standings.
AL East
Most people will tell you without hesitation that the Boston Red Sox are the team to beat here. I am not going to disagree. The Red Sox are coming off of an injury plagued year in which they managed to remain competitive well into the season. In addition to being suddenly healthy they’ve added some serious threats in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Crawford is also addition by subtraction since his presence in Boston means he no longer hurts them as a member of last year’s division winning Tampa Bay Rays. Gonzalez, a player with career numbers not at all reflective of his overall offensive value should see a huge statistical spike moving from the cavernous Petco Park to the hitting friendly Fenway Park. Since his acquisition via trade for a gaggle of prospects from the Padres I’ve heard more than a few people say that his swing is perfect for Fenway but when you show me anyone with a bat that doesn’t benefit from that park I’d be happy to go ahead and slap that “perfection” label on AGon.
The big question mark for Boston, however, is the pitching staff, the front 5 anyway. I don’t expect much of a bounce back year from Josh Beckett, though PECOTA sees him coming back to near his 2009 form. Matsuzaka and Lackey are also going to have to regain some past success for the starting rotation to earn its collective keep. With the offensive they’ve got on the other side, they’re likely going to get their share of wins, regardless. The bullpen actually looks quite good, especially in the last 3 innings as they’ve got Bard and Jenks to choose from before letting Papelbon race in for the 9th. In my opinion Bard is the strong man there and having him available for the high leverage pre-closing situations is key.
AL Central
You can call me a homer, I’ll allow it. This is, after all, a White Sox blog. I’m going to do my best to keep this abbreviated, as I’ll outline the roster in much further detail very soon. “We’re All In.” Jerry has opened up the wallet and shelled out for the heavily for some hitting and some bullpen help. The bullpen help, in the form of Jesse Crain is another addition by subtraction situation as the Twins will no longer be receiving his assistance in handing us our asses. His contract may be slightly ill advised, as it’s heavily documented that 3+ year reliever contracts don’t really work out unless the person signing at the bottom is Mariano Rivera. Short term it should work out excellent for us though. But let’s not ignore the Big Donkey in the room. Kenny Williams had been lusting after Adam Dunn for a while now and Kenny always gets his man. Luckily he didn’t have to wait until he was old and close to done for while forcing him to play a premium position. Dunn is still a highly productive offensive player. He’s one of the premier home run hitters over the last 7 years and one can only expect that to play pretty well at the Cell. He will strike out a ton, but the K/HR exchange rate should be well worth it. Jake Peavy has already started pitching, ahead of nearly every timetable I've viewed since his injury and the hope is that the rest of the pitching staff can perform to near their ability level. If that happens, the team has a pretty easy upper hand in the division, which isn’t incredibly threatening.
AL West
Despite the seemingly inexplicable acquisition of Vernon Wells and his contract, I do think that the Angels have the upper hand in the West. They suffered a devastating injury last year with Kendry Morales going out with a bang. Kendry will be back and heavy contract or no, Vernon Wells can hit. He can also play the outfield quite well, and if they go Hunter and Wells in the corner spots with Bourjos in center they are going to track down a great deal of anything that makes it out that way in the air. That outfield defense will be great in supporting their pitching staff, of which I am a fan. Most notably, Jered Weaver, who strikes out a ton of guys and does so with a very decent K/BB rate. Dan Haren is their number 2. Once again: Dan Haren is their number 2. He strikes out a ton of guys and does so with a very decent K/BB rate. I’m going to have to stop repeating myself with Kazmir and Santana, but also quality guys to have in the rotation. Depending on if Kazmir decides to be the good Scotty or the bad Scotty, he could be the real ace in the hole.
Wild Card
A lot of people would like to discount the Rays this year, and that makes some sense. They lost some guys that have proved valuable in Crawford, Pena, Garza, Soriano and Balfour and their answer was to sign a couple of old fellas. My thinking with putting the Rays here in the Wild Card is that with the exception of Crawford, they didn’t lose much in terms of who is likely to provide value this year. Pena had a hard time hovering near .200 last year (though in Wrigley he may see some level of power increase). Garza’s departure made way for Jeremy Hellickson, who shouldn’t experience many growing pains in his first season as a full timer. This leaves Rafael Soriano and Grant Balfour. Bullpen guys are hard to come by. It’s also hard to rely on them. Paying too much for bullpen help is tough to rationalize and I don’t think the departures will hurt too much. On top of all this, the Yankees have some serious rotation woes going on. I think it’s enough for the fellas in St. Pete to slip into the playoffs.
2011 American League Prediction:
AL East - Boston Red Sox
AL Central - Chicago White Sox
AL West - Anaheim Angels
Wild Card - Tampa Bay Rays
No comments:
Post a Comment