The Extra 2% (or How I Learned to Stop Fake Blogging and Start a Fake Book Review)

Jonah Keri’s The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major Baseball Team from Worst to First is at face value, the story of how the Tampa Bay Rays overcame the huge spending deficit they face aligned in the same division as the Red Sox and Yankees to claim their first World Series appearance (not to mention winning season) in franchise history. In order to tell that story, many layers have to be peeled back. It wasn’t an accident and the Rays didn’t just get lucky (well, not entirely). A seemingly plain shift in the standings does in fact require an entire book to explain.

Building a baseball team starts early. It’s a long process to build a winner and Keri does an excellent job of starting at the beginning. Not just the start of their winning, not just the start of the current management regime or even the start of the Devil Rays. By beginning I mean from the beginning stages of the Tampa area vying for a Major League Team. He even delves into how Chicago's questionable political integrity helped to get Tropicana Field was built years before they had anybody to play there after Jerry Reinsdorf and company threatened to move the White Sox down to Florida if money wasn’t received to build a replacement for the aging Comiskey Park. Obviously, that never happened, after some crafty Daley influenced and Governor Thompson executed "clockwork". It was an interesting road to acquisition, including many more false positives, that must have been absolutely heartbreaking for baseball fans of the area longing for a local rooting interest.

Save for some fairly high draft picks inherited by the previous ownerships terrible finishes, the real story of the current Rays, post twilight-ing Wade Boggs, Fred McGriff and Jose Canseco types, doesn’t begin until the new ownership group took over the cellar dwelling team. Armed with the knowledge imparted over the course of their various successful Wall Street careers, the group found new innovative and cost efficient ways to evaluate talent in order to acquire undervalued quality players through the draft, international signings and careful perusal of the scrap heap. Taking their time and doing it the right way, they were able to build a team that would not only be able to compete for one year, but maintain that level of competition for years to come.

The book’s main takeaway, aside an extreme sense of relief at the White Sox not being in the AL East, is the huge role that economics and MLB politics play in the sport. In order to thrive, a team really must have things covered from all angles.

It’s a baseball book that is not bogged down with stats to turn off the more casual fan, while opening them up to viewing the game from a non-traditional angle. For the serious baseball head, it glimpses into aspects of the game that may have not been previously explored in detail. For me personally, it created a great curiosity in the economics of the game that go beyond just salary amounts.


On a very related note, alongside the blog there is now a list of some of my favorite baseball related books. The Sox have off days people, so go read one!

The Contest

Paul Lukas at ESPN’s UNI WATCH has published an article featuring the story of how those super hip White Sox uniforms of my childhood came into being. It’s kind of funny because I was just talking the other day about how they arrived via a fan contest. Anyway, the article goes into some detail, and I recommend the read.

It got me thinking of my uniform preference. I’ve always attributed the place the mid-eighties uniforms hold in my heart to pure timing. It was during those years that I first started to form my taste for baseball. Naturally those unis call to mind the cliché memories of innocent youth complete with a Cub hatred that hadn’t yet fully formed, despite my already existent south side preference. I don’t think my age group is unique in a fondness for the white, blue and red S-O-X double knits. Anyone alive at the time, regardless of age, had to have felt a huge wave of relief just to see the collared jobs go away. There is no doubt that the pullovers worn from 82 until about 86 are my favorites. Rounding out my top 3, though, are two more looks that were worn over the years that create pretty much my entire fanhood.

The diagonal S-O-X is easy to identify with. It’s a resurrected logo that we’ve been varying on since the early 1950’s. We've been sporting it in black, white and sometimes gray since 1991 and still rock it today. It also represents the 2005 World Series winning team, which surely makes it look a bit better to Sox fans. One might refer to it as our “classic” look. They’re simple, they’re easy on the eyes and carry a feeling of tradition.

It’s hard to say when the cursive lettering started showing up with the red and blue color scheme. I say this because the WhiteSox.com Uniform History has decided for some strange reason to pretend they didn’t exist. My memory, though respectable, doesn’t go back in enough detail to recall an exact year for the change. The seasons in question, though being worn around by not terribly impressive Sox teams, excepting the 1990 squad, are also a look that I just identify with childhood, and therefore appreciate.

An honorable mention to these 70’s uniforms. Kind of just because this picture of Dick Allen is pretty awesome.

Winning at shadow boxing

Whatever semblance of a 3rd base battle there was is officially over. Ozzie Guillen has gone ahead and named Brent Morel the Sox starter at the hot corner. I’m a big fan of this for 2 reasons. First, he is not Mark Teahen. Second, he reminds me quite a bit of Joe Crede. He doesn’t hit a ton, but in his time last year he showed some pop. His main asset is his defense, which is huge on that side of the diamond with the off-speed stuff that comes out of our rotation.

Also, one week left, y’all.

Same old tune?

In case anybody was wondering, because I know I was, the Sox have announced the replacement for Nancy Faust. Her name is Lori Moreland and she will make her debut on opening day. I’m certainly glad to hear that they will keep the organ music alive at The ‘Cell, I do have concerns that Nancy’s legacy will be a lot to live up to. Being an organ player seems low-key and straight forward, however Faust was always clever in her choices. I’m a sucker for puns, and she was always making them. From playing Bo Jackson to the plate, fresh off of hip surgery, playing “Hip to be Square” to more obvious choices like “Welcome Back Kotter” for Gabe Kapler. Just over 2 weeks away from the home opener, so we shall find out soon!

National League Awards

ROY
He may have to wait until Aubrey Huff gets injured for his call-up, but once he arrives, I think he’ll be ready to contribute in a big way. Coming seemingly out of nowhere into uber prospecthood owing to a slight change in his approach at the plate, the well named Belt spent last season lacing balls all over the place in high A, AA, AAA and in the AZ Fall League. There is a movement to get him into the lineup on opening day for the Giants (my keeper fantasy league is a fan of this movement) but he’d have to learn LF pretty much on the fly. Teams will usually hesitate to do that but considering their outfield isn’t exactly the spryest bunch even without him, it may be worth getting that bat in the lineup. You may recall the Padres impatiently putting Kyle Blanks in LF a few years back since he was blocked by Adrian Gonzalez. Didn't work out so well for them. Huff is no Gonzazlez but a contract's a contract, I guess.

Cy Young
The NL had quite the battle for Cy Young last year. Among the names batted about heavily for not being batted about were Halladay, Jiminez, Wainright and Josh Johnson. Of those 4 I would only expect to see Halladay and Johnson in the running again this year. Wainright will miss the season for surgery, of course and although he does throw hot fire, I really don’t expect to see Jiminez repeat what he did last year. Though allowances certainly should be made for the fact that half of his starts are made in Coors Field. I do think that Lincecum will return from his “year off” and get some consideration again. Let’s not forget that a bona fide ace has switched leagues and will be tossing, at some point, for the Brew Crew. For the sake of not going with the repeat choice and selecting last year’s unanimous winner, Halladay, my choice for this year’s Cy Young is Josh Johnson. Do you like how my paragraph has 0 rationale about my selection? I do.

MVP
Is a machine affected by contract years? Doesn’t matter: Albert Pujols for the win. And frankly, it’s going to take a huge year from Fat Albert to keep the redbirds in contention.

NL Awards
Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt
Cy Young: Josh Johnson
MVP: Albert Pujols

Thornton packing heat; Peavy packing up?

Jake Peavy has been scratched from his next start. Rotator cuff tendonitis is the current issue, which is apparently unrelated to the surgery that cut his 2010 short. In any event, this pretty much ensures that he’ll be held back to start the season. The hunt for a #5 starter is un-officially on as Ozzie refuses to count Peavy out, but I don’t see how doing anything but erring on the side of caution would be wise in this situation. Peavy will be re-evaluated in the next couple of days and I suspect a more concrete decision will be made at that point. Nobody has emerged as a clear fill-in for the 5th spot but the hope is that not much will be needed.

The hunt for a closer, however, is officially off. Ozzie has named Matt Thornton, he of the "easy heat" to that role. I know that I said it didn’t matter much, as the title is somewhat ceremonial, but I do believe this is the proper choice. A kid as young as Sale, if he was named to and thrived as a closer might fall in love with that title. It doesn’t matter how good a closer is, he’d be worth much more as a starter and Sale certainly still has that possibility for the future. We’ve recently seen some of that with Neftali Feliz in Texas being unsure if he should make a stab at the rotation after experiencing some success finishing up games for the AL Champion Rangers. Looking forward to seeing Matty Ice close out contests this season.

It hurts to look this good

I recently had a look at the Baseball Prospectus injury projections for this season, utilizing a system aptly named CHIPPER (Comprehensive Health Index [of] Pitchers [and] Players [with] Evaluative Results). A couple of interesting things for the White Sox but overall, no surprises. Even the fine creators of this tool acknowledge the wonderful job that Herm Schneider and Co. do every year, calling the White Sox the Major League’s healthiest team.

The chart is broken out into guys that are major, minor and little to no risk to missing 1 day, 15 or 30 days due to injury. Let’s have a look at the fellas that are the most likely to succumb to injury in 2011. Falling into the no surprise category are Jake Peavy and Carlos Quentin.

At some point while he wasn’t having groundbreaking surgery and being nominated for Best Actor at the Academy Awards, Jake Peavy did manage to win the Cy Young Award. There’s not a whole lot I can say about Peavy that hasn’t been said a thousand times since he arrived on the South Side. He’s a gamer; he’s a tough SOB; he’s a question mark. If Jake ever returns to form, he’s our #1. Easily. He had a rough start for us last year, but he seemed to be improving before his seen ended abruptly. The question of course is if the injury has left him damaged long term. He’s not complained of any abnormal discomfort after making a few Spring Training starts. The real test is regular season throwing, though. It should be interesting to see what he can do in his first full season on the Sox.

Carlos Quentin…TCQ…The Haircut...We all got so excited in 2008, and then we all got so mad. Just like Carlos! Well, except for the excited part. Though a temper tantrum might have removed him from the pennant race late in 2008, I think it’s safe to say that the rest of his time missed, both before and after, was just being plain old injury prone. That doesn’t stop me from cringing every time he muffs a play in the outfield and slams a fist into the ground, punishing the well cared for surface for slowing his path to the ball. Stupid, dumb ground. Not to mention the fact that it seems like he gets hit by a pitch once a series. Anyway, as I’ve stated before, we’re waiting on that Carlos of old, but we’re far more likely to see him get hurt a number of times before that ever happens.

I doubt he’ll see enough action on a regular basis to miss too many games due to injury, but an honorable mention to Cookie Monster for also making the highly likely to get injured category. The next most likely to miss heavy time to injury after those three is Mark Teahen, but I’m not so sure we could get that lucky. As is pointed out in the piece, there is nothing to address his chronic case of being Mark Teahen.

Way to go, Donny!

Of White Sox fans that follow the team a bit more deeply than the average fan, most of them know of and love Donny Lucy. Why? I couldn’t tell you. There was some disappointment expressed when the Minor League journeyman Catcher was released from the team, and rejoicing when he was re-signed to the organization. He’s been up in the majors for a couple of short stints, the proverbial cup of coffee in 2007 and again in 2010, but mostly just handles staffs in the minors. His numbers offensively have never been anything to write home about, and frankly I have no idea what his value is defensively. I must admit though, I am also a fan of Donny Lucy. I was very excited when he got the chance to come up last year and see some at-bats. Why was I so excited? Why do I love Donny Lucy? I can shed some light on why I love Donny Lucy, but it sheds no light on anybody else’s personal experiences. I first saw Donny Lucy down in spring training along with a pal. We both loved him immediately. And not only because he allowed us to drop Lebowski references regularly as long as he was within our line of vision(we’d have found other ways without him). Something inexplicable, perhaps something intrinsic in backup catchers. Not 100%, but a lot of time. Like Asian kids being good at math.

It’s a little something I’ll call the back-up catcher exception. When you are the backup catcher, you are granted an extra amount of rope. You are allowed to suck a little more. You have a little personality? Great, we love you. Donny isn’t unique in this respect. Sox backup backstops like Corky Miller, Toby Hall and Chris Widger, though pretty awful in their tenure as far as the numbers go, were for the most part spared from the typical bashing for sub-par performances that is handed out by Sox fans. Do you recall The Officer? When I was a kid, Ron Karkovice was the man. Quite the player, a good guy. Would I want him on my fantasy team? Ever look at his actual numbers? Though not as bad as the other few I’ve mentioned, he was absolutely revered, at least to my recollection. To be fair, Karkovice wasn’t a lifetime backup. He did eventually have full time duties but he spent enough time on the team backing up that he qualifies for the exception apparently. Ranging through the list of relatively recent backup catchers for us, nobody ignites a great deal of ire, despite naturally sub-par performances. Well, maybe a little bit for Jamie Burke. If it wasn’t for 2005, 2004 would burn a heckuva lot more.

So my question to you is: Who is your favorite backup catcher?

Worlds Collide

Is it just me or do you think Theo and Denise every time Stefan Gartrell steps to the plate?

Senior Circuit Guessing Game

NL East
Like the American League, the NL East has a pretty clear favorite to win the division. Arguably the 2 best pitchers in the league are throwing for the Phillies. 4 of their 5 starters have had their names mentioned in recent Cy Young discussions. It’s pretty intimidating. Though it’s possible that nobody’s more intimidated than Joe Blanton. I can’t imagine any team will feel good looking at their schedule and seeing that their next three days will consist of Halladay, Lee and Hamels. Offensively they’re not quite as threatening. They still have their main core of stars there with Rollins, Utley, Howard and if you’re feeling generous you can put Victorino on that list. None of them hit amazingly well last year, though Howard contributed his usual amount of power, white Utley provides a great deal of his own out of a 2B. The guy to watch is Jimmy Rollins, who is looking to bounce back from a disappointing season. If everybody stays healthy they don’t have to put up a ton of runs to win games.

NL Central
Wow what a crap shoot. I mean, there are 6 teams so a roll of the die might be in order. Realistically any team but the Pirates and Astros have a shot. The Brewers have gotten better adding Greinke and Marcum, and nobody could ever deny that they can hit. I very weakly proclaim them as my team to beat in the division. The mashing triumvirate of Fielder, Braun and Hart lead a pack of players that can just straight up hit the ball hard. Rickie Weeks has shown signs that he will become the player we’ve been waiting for the last few seasons and Casey McGehee has also exhibited some quality pop. What might put them over the Reds or the Cardinals for me though, is John Axford. Not because he is great, because he’s not, but having a closer rock out a Rollie Fingers stache is just worth a lot more than excessive talent.

NL West
Well they did win the World Series. Some might say it was a bit of a fluke, as they barely even made the playoffs. Fact of the matter is they won and they didn’t get any worse. It’s quite possible they got better. I’m a big believer in Buster Posey, who will only improve. And is this Tim Lincecum? Doesn’t matter, because Tim Lincecum is great and I challenge any of you to say otherwise. They are admittedly a bit light in the outfield, waiting out a terrible Aaron Rowand contract and hoping to extend a pretty lucky stretch out of Cody Ross. Madison Baumgarner joins Lincecum, Cain, Zito and Sanchez to round a very solid rotation. Especially playing in Pac Bell. The wild card is the Kung Fu Panda! Or the nickname that I prefer: Fat Ichiro. He laid off the good stuff this winter and lost 40 pounds in hopes of returning to his old form. His old form is worth about .330 at the plate if you were wondering. In my eyes, the other teams in the West didn’t really do anything to improve themselves, so I expect to see the Giants get a chance to defend their title in the playoffs.

Wild Card
It will be strange during the season, but it might be even stranger during the playoffs to look into the Atlanta Braves dugout and see somebody other than Bobby Cox. I’m thinking we’ll be doing that though. I'll come clean, I’ve got a serious man-crush on Jason Heyward and I fully expect him to hoist the entire team on his shoulders and jog into the post-season. If he wants, though, he can get some help. Freddie Freeman will be manning first base for his first full season, which is a bit of a wild card, but there is a new man in the lineup that can pick up plenty of slack. His name is Dan Uggla. After trading for Uggla from the Marlins the Braves uncharacteristically shelled out to give Uggla a fancy new contract. This may have been done to have someone in place to contribute the power that will be missing once Chipper’s season inevitably ends early. In the event that Chipper stays healthy and contributes all season long, the Braves do have a chance to compete with the Phillies, as silly as that might sound. The pitching staff last year may have overachieved, so that could regress. That doesn’t change that there are quality hurlers in Hudson, Lowe, Jurjenns, Hanson and Minor. Back end of the game, a possible righty/lefty closer situation with Venters and Kimbrell can shorten games in a hurry.

2011 National League prediction
NL East - Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central - Milwaukee Brewers
NL West - San Francisco Giants
Wild Card - Atlanta Braves

Who’s got two thumbs and…

Dayan Viciedo won’t be making the roster out of Spring Training after all. The report is a fractured right thumb after being hit by a pitch in today’s game. This may end up being a good thing, since he’d be a part time player on the big squad. That’s something I took issue with last season, as he needs in-game action more than anything else. Once he heals he’ll be heading to Charlotte so he can play every day. After The Haircut lays an egg he may come up and slot right into the everyday lineup. Not that I’m rooting for a TCQ breakdown. I’d like to see him regain some of that 2008 form but I fear those days have passed. One thing is for sure: this is his last chance to achieve that.

Peavy and Podcast Personas

Jake Peavy made yet another start without issue today. Which proves one thing: he’s not hurt yet. Jake himself says that he’s been going through the same routine as the rest of the starters, and he’s slotted in to be the 5th starter in the rotation so that he has some extra time to recover. I’ve already mentioned that he’s ahead of schedule, but if he really starts the season with everyone else, well, that’s pretty darn impressive.

The White Sox edition of 30 Clubs 30 Days aired today on MLB Network. It’s a fun thing to watch, if only because they do talk Sox for an hour minus commercials. It’s not incredibly in-depth but nice in the spirit of Spring Training and just seeing players in action and listening to everybody talk about how ready they are to play and how confident they are about the season. Things re-learned: Omar Vizquel is old with good hands; Peavy is a competitor; Buehrle pitches a ton of innings; Adam Dunn is a monster. Also re-learned is how much Harold Reynolds talks out of his ass. It’s pretty amazing. More amazing is that I still like him. I don’t know what it is that makes him so likeable. Does somebody not like Harold Reynolds? He’s the Tom Hanks of baseball commentary. Anyway, I do suggest that you watch if you have the chance. They’ll surely replay it a ton before the season starts.

I spent a couple of good hours today in the company of Kevin Goldstein (host of the best podcast available), Colin Wyers and Ken Funck of Baseball Prospectus along with a pretty good amount of us regular folk for the BP 2011 Book Tour. Being as the book is full of many many numbers, and not really conducive to a “reading,” the majority of the event was Q & A.

The discussion ranged from prospects to current major league situations to SABR issues. I wasn’t sitting in with a tape recorder and I wasn’t transcribing as it went on. My memory only grabs a certain amount of details so I’ll just share a little something that each of the panelists discussed.

My first question, directed towards Kevin, was how often the team is to blame for the failing of a prospect. He felt that rarely, if ever, is it actually a team’s fault. Prospects fail for a multitude of reasons, mostly failure to make necessary adjustments or mental makeup. I expanded on the question, asking if perhaps a team didn’t have proper resources in place to shield a young player from the poor influences in certain minor league environments. For instance, in the California League playing in Bakersfield which is a pretty meth heavy area. Just keeping a guy from going out and getting into trouble. He wasn’t sure what certain teams might have in place to keep players from delving into meth or associating with prostitutes, but that measures were indeed taken, especially for specific players. He had a great story about Manny Ramirez. Apparently ManRam got such shielded treatment as a prospect coming up with the Indians. When the Indians drafted Manny, Kevin explained, they already knew he was batshit crazy. He had to have a keeper with him at all times, just to keep him from getting into trouble. In the off-season wasn’t allowed to go back to NY, where he had attended high school, for fear that his crazy would have too much room to shine. He also mentioned that there are players in every team’s minor league ranks, who are on the team simply to be good influences. The choosing of roommates for young prospects arriving to camp is not random. They are teamed up with the good influences so that there is help to keep behavior in check.

Ken fielded a couple of questions on a subject that I touched on the other day here, which is bullpen usage. It was agreed by all 3 gentleman in front that bullpens are being misused by clubs. Ken pointed out the White Sox specifically citing how they benefited from having Bobby Jenks as the closer, freeing up Matt Thornton, the better pitcher, to go to work in the high leverage situations, when he is more valuable. He went a bit further than I did, by saying that the 9th inning is rarely the highest leverage situation for a reliever. I asked him if he thought that any team had ever knowingly assigned a closer of lesser value than the rest of the relievers, so that the better pitcher was available for when the game was truly on the line. That was received by scoffs across the board. No. No team has done that. However Kevin mentioned that he thinks teams will eventually start using the bullpens in a smarter way. Having the most effective pitcher come in during the high leverage situations, and stay in the game throughout to close. Basically revert to how closers were used back in the 70’s.

Colin, the stat guru, spoke about his disappointment in defensive metrics. Too many variables, he thinks, are unaccounted for. The problem with many of them is the way that people look at them and accept them. Those that crunch the numbers understand that a minor tweak somewhere in the line can greatly affect what comes out on the other side. Essentially what he was getting at is with so many different algorithms being used to evaluate player value, you have to be wary of the garbage in, garbage out.

There were many other good topics discussed, of course and surprisingly little local talk. Sox and Cubs weren’t brought up a bunch, which I appreciated. It was nice to have a somewhat impartial discussion about all things baseball without anybody getting too emotional. I’m definitely glad that I attended. I was worried going in about the format. I didn’t want to show up to watch people get their books signed.

Other Stuff Warning

I will occasionally stray away from the White Sox only format. During Spring Training the stories are at a minimum and game action is very close to unusable as far as big picture goes. So over the next few weeks leading up to Opening Day there will be more straying than usual. What better way to kick off a specialized blog than with subject matter slightly outside of intended content?

A good way to show that you are really dumb is to make season standings and awards predictions. Always in need of a reminder of my sub-par prognosticating skills, I’m going to go ahead and participate in this exercise. Part 1: American League Standings.

AL East
Most people will tell you without hesitation that the Boston Red Sox are the team to beat here. I am not going to disagree. The Red Sox are coming off of an injury plagued year in which they managed to remain competitive well into the season. In addition to being suddenly healthy they’ve added some serious threats in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Crawford is also addition by subtraction since his presence in Boston means he no longer hurts them as a member of last year’s division winning Tampa Bay Rays. Gonzalez, a player with career numbers not at all reflective of his overall offensive value should see a huge statistical spike moving from the cavernous Petco Park to the hitting friendly Fenway Park. Since his acquisition via trade for a gaggle of prospects from the Padres I’ve heard more than a few people say that his swing is perfect for Fenway but when you show me anyone with a bat that doesn’t benefit from that park I’d be happy to go ahead and slap that “perfection” label on AGon.

The big question mark for Boston, however, is the pitching staff, the front 5 anyway. I don’t expect much of a bounce back year from Josh Beckett, though PECOTA sees him coming back to near his 2009 form. Matsuzaka and Lackey are also going to have to regain some past success for the starting rotation to earn its collective keep. With the offensive they’ve got on the other side, they’re likely going to get their share of wins, regardless. The bullpen actually looks quite good, especially in the last 3 innings as they’ve got Bard and Jenks to choose from before letting Papelbon race in for the 9th. In my opinion Bard is the strong man there and having him available for the high leverage pre-closing situations is key.

AL Central
You can call me a homer, I’ll allow it. This is, after all, a White Sox blog. I’m going to do my best to keep this abbreviated, as I’ll outline the roster in much further detail very soon. “We’re All In.” Jerry has opened up the wallet and shelled out for the heavily for some hitting and some bullpen help. The bullpen help, in the form of Jesse Crain is another addition by subtraction situation as the Twins will no longer be receiving his assistance in handing us our asses. His contract may be slightly ill advised, as it’s heavily documented that 3+ year reliever contracts don’t really work out unless the person signing at the bottom is Mariano Rivera. Short term it should work out excellent for us though. But let’s not ignore the Big Donkey in the room. Kenny Williams had been lusting after Adam Dunn for a while now and Kenny always gets his man. Luckily he didn’t have to wait until he was old and close to done for while forcing him to play a premium position. Dunn is still a highly productive offensive player. He’s one of the premier home run hitters over the last 7 years and one can only expect that to play pretty well at the Cell. He will strike out a ton, but the K/HR exchange rate should be well worth it. Jake Peavy has already started pitching, ahead of nearly every timetable I've viewed since his injury and the hope is that the rest of the pitching staff can perform to near their ability level. If that happens, the team has a pretty easy upper hand in the division, which isn’t incredibly threatening.

AL West
Despite the seemingly inexplicable acquisition of Vernon Wells and his contract, I do think that the Angels have the upper hand in the West. They suffered a devastating injury last year with Kendry Morales going out with a bang. Kendry will be back and heavy contract or no, Vernon Wells can hit. He can also play the outfield quite well, and if they go Hunter and Wells in the corner spots with Bourjos in center they are going to track down a great deal of anything that makes it out that way in the air. That outfield defense will be great in supporting their pitching staff, of which I am a fan. Most notably, Jered Weaver, who strikes out a ton of guys and does so with a very decent K/BB rate. Dan Haren is their number 2. Once again: Dan Haren is their number 2. He strikes out a ton of guys and does so with a very decent K/BB rate. I’m going to have to stop repeating myself with Kazmir and Santana, but also quality guys to have in the rotation. Depending on if Kazmir decides to be the good Scotty or the bad Scotty, he could be the real ace in the hole.

Wild Card
A lot of people would like to discount the Rays this year, and that makes some sense. They lost some guys that have proved valuable in Crawford, Pena, Garza, Soriano and Balfour and their answer was to sign a couple of old fellas. My thinking with putting the Rays here in the Wild Card is that with the exception of Crawford, they didn’t lose much in terms of who is likely to provide value this year. Pena had a hard time hovering near .200 last year (though in Wrigley he may see some level of power increase). Garza’s departure made way for Jeremy Hellickson, who shouldn’t experience many growing pains in his first season as a full timer. This leaves Rafael Soriano and Grant Balfour. Bullpen guys are hard to come by. It’s also hard to rely on them. Paying too much for bullpen help is tough to rationalize and I don’t think the departures will hurt too much. On top of all this, the Yankees have some serious rotation woes going on. I think it’s enough for the fellas in St. Pete to slip into the playoffs.

2011 American League Prediction:
AL East - Boston Red Sox
AL Central - Chicago White Sox
AL West - Anaheim Angels
Wild Card - Tampa Bay Rays

Spring Happenings

With Mark Teahen throwing away his chance to be the everyday 3rd baseman, there aren’t many more question marks for Spring as far as the roster is concerned. Beyond finalizing the bullpen personnel, there is the matter of hanging the closer tag on somebody and selecting the 4th outfielder.

Let’s start with the latter as I think the former requires some extra discussion. Alejandro De Aza will once again be playing his arse off this spring in an attempt to make the roster. Unfortunately for him, Lastings Milledge will be working just as hard to prove that his career won’t end on empty promise and Dayan Viciedo will be riding the strength of his bat tool while learning RF just so he has somewhere to play. Personally, I’m torn. I’d love to see some of that long Lastings ceiling that was spoken of so much back in his Mets days. It would be a huge steal for the Sox to see this guy go nuts and realize some of his potential. I think that’s a pretty big long shot. The most likely outcome, and also one I'm excited to see is Dayan Viciedo working his way into the lineup by learning how to not completely butcher RF defensively. The good news on that is the bar is low, as Carlos The Haircut Quentin is rated by many defensive metrics as the worst defensive RF in the league with a -22.9 UZR rating. From what we saw last year of Dayan, his bat loves to pop the gaps, so the defensive liability will probably be worth it for a couple few days a week. A resting Dunn can also bring some ABs for DHayan.

As for the closer, it's really one of those good problems. Matt Thornton just signed on to stay with the Sox for another 2 years after the 2011 campaign. The Sox also have a 2014 option on Matty Ice. The deal seems a little rich for a 34 year old, but I do like Thornton, and it’s not my money so I’m game. Money like this might be looked at as “closer” money, but we all know that Ozzie won’t be announcing any official closer any time soon. Mention has been made of a closer by committee, but that’s just plain silly. Santos could possibly see some opportunities in this setup, after that, we’re just looking at Thornton and the team’s second favorite impossibly thin and (hopefully) successful major leaguer, Chris Sale. Bullpen by committee is, like communism, nice in theory, but can’t really be executed without serious issues. Being able to pick and choose freely what pitcher to use in what situation in a game by game basis seems like an excellent idea. In fact, it seems like exactly the sort of thing that all managers should be allowed to do. Unfortunately managers are tethered to conventional thinking, players feelings and economics. Each team has one closer, that’s just the way it works. Pitchers like to know their role. They want to know if they are the man, the guy to shut it all down in the end. Somebody needs to be able to rack up those saves in order to use them to leverage a better contract in the future, or the agents and the players union will throw tantrums.

My opinion is it doesn’t matter who gets the job. That's correct, it doesn’t matter. I say give it to the guy that chooses the better music to run in from the bullpen to. Having 2 potential closers allows Ozzie to somewhat circumvent "wasting" his strongest reliever in the 9th, in the event that it’s not the highest leverage situation in the game. A couple of writers over at FanGraphs recently discussed the situation briefly and it was pointed out that we saw that a bit last year with Bobby Jenks being the closer, when Thornton was the more effective pitcher. Bobby worked the 9th, while Thornton could get plugged in when the game was at a pivotal point. If we were up a run with opposing runners on base late in the game, for instance. That flexibility could be there again this year. No matter who ends up getting the closer tag, we will have one hard throwing and hopefully greatly effective lefty available to go to work when the game is really on the line. That said, sometimes the 9th inning is the high leverage point in the game. I understand that and don't deny that closers are, in fact, important. Just not closer money important.


In other news, I got my first look at the latest and greatest Chosen One today. Mr. Eye Black himself made in appearance in the Braves/Nationals game this afternoon (thanks, MLBNetwork) and lined out to LF. Despite the single at-bat, and all the negative things I hear about the kid personally. I do believe that I like Bryce Harper. I look forward to watching him play, even though it won’t be for a few years.

A Brief Introduction

There are plenty of White Sox blogs around supported by smart, funny and articulate writers. This is not one of those blogs. But I love the White Sox and love to talk baseball, so I’ll do that here.